Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

SGS S.A. (0QMI.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.03 - $56.72$47.60
Multi-Stage$101.20 - $111.69$106.34
Blended Fair Value$76.97
Current Price$80.50
Upside-4.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.87%-8.42%1.103.143.193.193.183.133.052.812.752.78
YoY Growth---64.92%-1.50%0.00%0.17%1.53%2.79%8.52%2.13%-0.96%4.61%
Dividend Yield--1.21%4.33%3.71%2.61%2.98%2.95%3.44%2.76%3.32%3.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,019.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)318.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)701.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)203.80127.3876.43
Cash Retained (M)701.00701.00701.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-203.80-127.38-76.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)497.20573.63624.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)187.97187.97187.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.653.053.32
LTM Dividend per Share1.691.691.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.653.053.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.344.745.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate-4.20%-3.20%-2.20%
Fair Value$39.03$47.60$56.72
Upside / Downside-51.52%-40.87%-29.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,019.00986.42954.89924.36894.81866.20892.19
Payout Ratio31.21%42.97%54.72%66.48%78.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)318.00423.82522.55614.54700.11779.58825.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate-4.20%-3.20%-2.20%
Year 1 PV (M)394.03398.15402.26
Year 2 PV (M)451.68461.15470.73
Year 3 PV (M)493.85509.47525.43
Year 4 PV (M)523.07545.25568.13
Year 5 PV (M)541.50570.36600.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,619.2017,504.8618,427.88
Equity Value (M)19,023.3219,989.2420,994.86
Shares Outstanding (M)187.97187.97187.97
Fair Value$101.20$106.34$111.69
Upside / Downside25.72%32.10%38.75%

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