Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Corporación Financiera Alba, S.A. (0HA8.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.27 - $19.79$16.37
Multi-Stage$26.46 - $29.06$27.74
Blended Fair Value$22.05
Current Price$83.30
Upside-73.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.11%-0.06%0.960.100.680.970.960.960.480.960.960.96
YoY Growth--864.88%-85.37%-29.67%0.17%0.00%100.00%-50.00%0.00%0.00%-0.06%
Dividend Yield--1.15%0.21%1.48%1.82%2.28%2.78%1.09%1.97%2.19%2.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)57.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.5412.217.33
Cash Retained (M)39.8139.8139.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.54-12.21-7.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.2727.6032.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60.3260.3260.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.460.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.960.960.96
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.460.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.301.421.50
WACC / Discount Rate7.46%7.46%7.46%
Growth Rate-2.11%-1.11%-0.11%
Fair Value$13.27$16.37$19.79
Upside / Downside-84.07%-80.35%-76.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.7296.6495.5794.5193.4792.4395.21
Payout Ratio59.26%65.41%71.56%77.70%83.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)57.9163.2168.3873.4478.3783.1988.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.46%7.46%7.46%
Growth Rate-2.11%-1.11%-0.11%
Year 1 PV (M)58.2358.8259.42
Year 2 PV (M)58.0359.2260.43
Year 3 PV (M)57.4159.1961.00
Year 4 PV (M)56.4458.7861.19
Year 5 PV (M)55.1958.0661.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,310.631,378.951,450.09
Equity Value (M)1,595.921,673.021,753.18
Shares Outstanding (M)60.3260.3260.32
Fair Value$26.46$27.74$29.06
Upside / Downside-68.24%-66.70%-65.11%

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