Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Paradox Interactive AB (publ) (0GDU.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electronic Gaming & MultimediaSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,017.90 - $1,199.26$1,123.88
Multi-Stage$752.15 - $825.06$787.93
Blended Fair Value$955.90
Current Price$175.00
Upside446.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.58%0.00%3.002.001.001.001.001.001.001.000.670.30
YoY Growth--50.01%100.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%49.25%123.33%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.64%1.06%0.39%0.56%0.51%0.63%0.67%0.80%1.17%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)637.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)528.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)109.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.5379.7147.83
Cash Retained (M)109.55109.55109.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.53-79.71-47.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)-17.9829.8561.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)105.75105.75105.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.170.280.58
LTM Dividend per Share4.994.994.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.170.280.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.825.285.58
WACC / Discount Rate0.79%0.79%0.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,017.90$1,123.88$1,199.26
Upside / Downside481.66%542.22%585.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)637.67679.12723.26770.27820.34873.66899.87
Payout Ratio82.82%84.26%85.69%87.13%88.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)528.12572.20619.77671.12726.53786.30832.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.79%0.79%0.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)562.38567.71573.04
Year 2 PV (M)598.69610.10621.61
Year 3 PV (M)637.17655.47674.10
Year 4 PV (M)677.94704.02730.83
Year 5 PV (M)721.13755.96792.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)76,339.7980,027.0383,855.39
Equity Value (M)79,537.1283,320.2987,247.11
Shares Outstanding (M)105.75105.75105.75
Fair Value$752.15$787.93$825.06
Upside / Downside329.80%350.25%371.47%

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