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Definitive Analysis

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China Education Group Holdings Limited (0839.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.96 - $23.36$21.89
Multi-Stage$3.43 - $3.75$3.59
Blended Fair Value$12.74
Current Price$2.27
Upside461.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.04%0.00%0.090.460.150.240.150.070.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---80.03%208.10%-37.99%55.09%116.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.81%10.49%1.97%2.04%1.17%0.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)314.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)243.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)62.8039.2523.55
Cash Retained (M)71.0071.0071.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-62.80-39.25-23.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.2031.7547.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,673.002,673.002,673.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.96$21.89$23.36
Upside / Downside294.71%864.48%929.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)314.00334.41356.15379.30403.95430.21443.11
Payout Ratio77.39%79.91%82.43%84.96%87.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)243.00267.23293.58322.23353.37387.19409.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)248.32250.67253.02
Year 2 PV (M)253.49258.32263.20
Year 3 PV (M)258.54265.96273.52
Year 4 PV (M)263.45273.58284.00
Year 5 PV (M)268.23281.19294.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,873.358,253.648,648.48
Equity Value (M)9,165.399,583.3710,016.87
Shares Outstanding (M)2,673.002,673.002,673.00
Fair Value$3.43$3.59$3.75
Upside / Downside51.05%57.94%65.08%

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