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Definitive Analysis

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Ncsoft Corporation (036570.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electronic Gaming & MultimediaSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$106,042.31 - $148,279.88$127,097.39
Multi-Stage$174,779.82 - $192,463.90$183,447.14
Blended Fair Value$155,272.26
Current Price$216,000.00
Upside-28.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.59%18.18%3,277.396,993.996,135.459,084.135,546.106,423.287,976.144,183.313,096.783,539.06
YoY Growth---53.14%13.99%-32.46%63.79%-13.66%-19.47%90.67%35.09%-12.50%473.62%
Dividend Yield--2.19%3.40%1.65%1.94%0.64%0.99%1.63%1.00%1.02%1.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)341,592.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28,314.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)313,278.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68,318.5742,699.1125,619.46
Cash Retained (M)313,278.38313,278.38313,278.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-68,318.57-42,699.11-25,619.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)244,959.81270,579.27287,658.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.4019.4019.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share12,629.5613,950.4414,831.03
LTM Dividend per Share1,459.831,459.831,459.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share12,629.5613,950.4414,831.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend14,089.3915,410.2716,290.86
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate-3.49%-2.49%-1.49%
Fair Value$106,042.31$127,097.39$148,279.88
Upside / Downside-50.91%-41.16%-31.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)341,592.84333,085.26324,789.57316,700.49308,812.87301,121.70310,155.35
Payout Ratio8.29%24.63%40.97%57.32%73.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28,314.4682,042.77133,077.24181,518.72227,464.74271,009.53286,893.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.33%9.33%9.33%
Growth Rate-3.49%-2.49%-1.49%
Year 1 PV (M)74,270.3075,039.8775,809.43
Year 2 PV (M)109,057.01111,328.74113,623.90
Year 3 PV (M)134,662.33138,891.84143,208.99
Year 4 PV (M)152,761.42159,191.97165,823.43
Year 5 PV (M)164,762.76173,477.60182,557.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,754,471.912,900,164.833,051,958.48
Equity Value (M)3,389,985.733,558,094.843,732,981.59
Shares Outstanding (M)19.4019.4019.40
Fair Value$174,779.82$183,447.14$192,463.90
Upside / Downside-19.08%-15.07%-10.90%

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