Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Vtech Holdings Limited (0303.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.66 - $16.00$13.19
Multi-Stage$24.56 - $26.97$25.74
Blended Fair Value$19.47
Current Price$8.05
Upside141.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.50%-2.11%0.650.590.680.910.530.670.800.700.420.77
YoY Growth--10.25%-13.15%-25.21%71.93%-20.81%-16.19%14.38%66.82%-46.15%-3.73%
Dividend Yield--8.86%9.74%11.36%12.48%5.87%9.23%7.57%5.52%3.49%6.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)323.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)313.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)64.6840.4324.26
Cash Retained (M)9.709.709.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-64.68-40.43-24.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)-54.98-30.73-14.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)252.85252.85252.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.22-0.12-0.06
LTM Dividend per Share1.241.241.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.22-0.12-0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.021.121.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-2.50%-1.50%-0.50%
Fair Value$10.66$13.19$16.00
Upside / Downside32.46%63.88%98.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)323.40318.54313.75309.04304.39299.82308.81
Payout Ratio97.00%95.60%94.20%92.80%91.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)313.70304.53295.56286.79278.21269.84285.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.85%6.85%6.85%
Growth Rate-2.50%-1.50%-0.50%
Year 1 PV (M)282.10285.00287.89
Year 2 PV (M)253.63258.86264.15
Year 3 PV (M)227.99235.07242.31
Year 4 PV (M)204.89213.42222.22
Year 5 PV (M)184.08193.72203.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,058.275,323.065,598.81
Equity Value (M)6,210.966,509.136,819.13
Shares Outstanding (M)252.85252.85252.85
Fair Value$24.56$25.74$26.97
Upside / Downside205.14%219.79%235.02%

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