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Definitive Analysis

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Hwacheon Machinery Co., Ltd. (010660.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,518.99 - $9,422.51$5,397.86
Multi-Stage$13,238.47 - $14,629.10$13,919.83
Blended Fair Value$9,658.84
Current Price$5,630.00
Upside71.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS27.23%-10.40%30.6527.589.190.000.009.199.190.0032.1982.75
YoY Growth--11.11%199.98%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-61.11%-10.00%
Dividend Yield--1.00%0.44%0.32%0.00%0.00%0.45%0.42%0.00%1.48%3.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,455.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)879.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,575.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)691.17431.98259.19
Cash Retained (M)2,575.982,575.982,575.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-691.17-431.98-259.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,884.802,143.992,316.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.5321.5321.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share87.5399.56107.59
LTM Dividend per Share40.8640.8640.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share87.5399.56107.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend128.39140.42148.45
WACC / Discount Rate1.58%1.58%1.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3,518.99$5,397.86$9,422.51
Upside / Downside-37.50%-4.12%67.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,455.873,421.313,387.103,353.233,319.693,286.503,385.09
Payout Ratio25.46%38.37%51.28%64.18%77.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)879.891,312.711,736.792,152.252,559.222,957.853,131.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.58%1.58%1.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,279.301,292.351,305.41
Year 2 PV (M)1,649.491,683.331,717.51
Year 3 PV (M)1,992.042,053.652,116.51
Year 4 PV (M)2,308.432,404.102,502.72
Year 5 PV (M)2,600.082,735.472,876.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)275,246.98289,579.73304,503.43
Equity Value (M)285,076.32299,748.63315,022.01
Shares Outstanding (M)21.5321.5321.53
Fair Value$13,238.47$13,919.83$14,629.10
Upside / Downside135.14%147.24%159.84%

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