Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ilyang Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd (007570.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,113.07 - $4,265.47$3,696.67
Multi-Stage$15,901.78 - $17,680.02$16,771.77
Blended Fair Value$10,234.22
Current Price$13,710.00
Upside-25.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.55%-7.61%165.42215.56219.26487.96272.61323.43110.05292.52196.23115.22
YoY Growth---23.26%-1.69%-55.07%79.00%-15.71%193.89%-62.38%49.07%70.32%-68.44%
Dividend Yield--1.67%1.46%1.30%1.80%0.82%0.78%0.38%0.72%0.52%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,262.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,784.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,477.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,252.401,407.75844.65
Cash Retained (M)7,477.207,477.207,477.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,252.40-1,407.75-844.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,224.796,069.446,632.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.9817.9817.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share290.59337.57368.89
LTM Dividend per Share210.50210.50210.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share290.59337.57368.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend501.10548.08579.39
WACC / Discount Rate4.94%4.94%4.94%
Growth Rate-9.61%-8.61%-7.61%
Fair Value$3,113.07$3,696.67$4,265.47
Upside / Downside-77.29%-73.04%-68.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,262.0210,292.339,406.138,596.247,856.087,179.657,395.04
Payout Ratio33.61%44.89%56.16%67.44%78.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,784.824,619.775,282.885,797.546,184.426,461.696,840.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.94%4.94%4.94%
Growth Rate-9.61%-8.61%-7.61%
Year 1 PV (M)4,354.154,402.324,450.49
Year 2 PV (M)4,692.854,797.264,902.82
Year 3 PV (M)4,853.935,016.825,183.31
Year 4 PV (M)4,880.135,099.705,326.60
Year 5 PV (M)4,805.765,077.545,361.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)262,323.23277,158.54292,657.59
Equity Value (M)285,910.06301,552.20317,882.30
Shares Outstanding (M)17.9817.9817.98
Fair Value$15,901.78$16,771.77$17,680.02
Upside / Downside15.99%22.33%28.96%

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