Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guoco Group Limited (0053.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.01 - $43.28$35.10
Multi-Stage$49.24 - $54.15$51.65
Blended Fair Value$43.37
Current Price$9.00
Upside381.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.380.260.260.260.510.510.510.520.52
YoY Growth---100.00%50.87%-0.49%-0.64%-49.62%0.31%-0.14%-0.82%-0.09%0.15%
Dividend Yield--0.00%4.36%3.40%2.54%2.24%3.58%3.27%3.40%4.50%4.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)972.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)237.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)734.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)194.41121.5172.90
Cash Retained (M)734.10734.10734.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-194.41-121.51-72.90
(=) Excess Retained (M)539.69612.59661.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)325.22325.22325.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.661.882.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.661.882.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.392.622.76
WACC / Discount Rate7.50%7.50%7.50%
Growth Rate-0.95%0.05%1.05%
Fair Value$28.01$35.10$43.28
Upside / Downside211.25%290.00%380.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)972.05972.52972.99973.46973.93974.401,003.63
Payout Ratio24.48%37.58%50.69%63.79%76.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)237.95365.50493.18620.98748.91876.96928.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.50%7.50%7.50%
Growth Rate-0.95%0.05%1.05%
Year 1 PV (M)336.60339.99343.39
Year 2 PV (M)418.26426.74435.32
Year 3 PV (M)484.99499.83514.97
Year 4 PV (M)538.64560.72583.48
Year 5 PV (M)580.85610.77641.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,655.9314,359.3515,091.46
Equity Value (M)16,015.2616,797.4117,610.53
Shares Outstanding (M)325.22325.22325.22
Fair Value$49.24$51.65$54.15
Upside / Downside447.15%473.87%501.65%

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