Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $92,172.61 - $197,756.04 | $131,395.34 |
| Multi-Stage | $90,352.59 - $98,901.10 | $94,547.68 |
| Blended Fair Value | $112,971.51 | |
| Current Price | $129,200.00 | |
| Upside | -12.56% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 9.55% | 2.86% | 1,711.37 | 2,175.08 | 2,101.51 | 1,621.89 | 1,114.40 | 1,084.57 | 1,249.99 | 1,343.21 | 1,796.15 | 1,316.75 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -21.32% | 3.50% | 29.57% | 45.54% | 2.75% | -13.23% | -6.94% | -25.22% | 36.41% | 1.97% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.40% | 1.76% | 1.72% | 0.80% | 0.31% | 0.79% | 0.87% | 0.65% | 1.13% | 0.74% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 56,335.14 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 18,831.36 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 37,503.79 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 11,267.03 | 7,041.89 | 4,225.14 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 37,503.79 | 37,503.79 | 37,503.79 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -11,267.03 | -7,041.89 | -4,225.14 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 26,236.76 | 30,461.89 | 33,278.65 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 11.41 | 11.41 | 11.41 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 2,298.80 | 2,668.99 | 2,915.79 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1,649.96 | 1,649.96 | 1,649.96 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 2,298.80 | 2,668.99 | 2,915.79 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3,948.75 | 4,318.95 | 4,565.75 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.03% | 8.03% | 8.03% |
| Growth Rate | 3.59% | 4.59% | 5.59% |
| Fair Value | $92,172.61 | $131,395.34 | $197,756.04 |
| Upside / Downside | -28.66% | 1.70% | 53.06% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 56,335.14 | 58,919.60 | 61,622.62 | 64,449.65 | 67,406.37 | 70,498.73 | 72,613.70 |
| Payout Ratio | 33.43% | 44.74% | 56.06% | 67.37% | 78.69% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 18,831.36 | 26,361.75 | 34,543.44 | 43,420.34 | 53,039.02 | 63,448.86 | 67,167.67 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.03% | 8.03% | 8.03% |
| Growth Rate | 3.59% | 4.59% | 5.59% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 24,169.95 | 24,403.28 | 24,636.61 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 29,038.13 | 29,601.49 | 30,170.26 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 33,465.55 | 34,444.13 | 35,441.60 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 37,480.19 | 38,948.57 | 40,459.67 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 41,108.51 | 43,131.43 | 45,233.21 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 865,954.40 | 908,567.38 | 952,841.67 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,031,216.73 | 1,079,096.28 | 1,128,783.02 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 11.41 | 11.41 | 11.41 |
| Fair Value | $90,352.59 | $94,547.68 | $98,901.10 |
| Upside / Downside | -30.07% | -26.82% | -23.45% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORA | Ormat Technologies, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.48 | 21.81% |
| VLTO | Veralto Corporation | 0.42% | $0.42 | 11.39% |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | 0.41% | $1.52 | 17.38% |
| EXPE | Expedia Group, Inc. | 0.41% | $1.15 | 10.88% |
| GE | GE Aerospace | 0.40% | $1.29 | 17.08% |
| GEHCV | GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | 0.40% | $0.23 | 5.05% |
| ATMU | Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 0.39% | $0.20 | 8.42% |
| BMNR | Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. | 0.39% | $0.12 | 0.85% |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | 0.39% | $0.43 | 7.61% |
| PLPC | Preformed Line Products Company | 0.39% | $0.83 | 11.03% |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | 0.38% | $1.03 | 13.77% |
| AMOT | Allied Motion Technologies Inc. | 0.38% | $0.12 | 21.85% |
| CASY | Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 0.38% | $2.09 | 12.85% |
| EA | Electronic Arts Inc. | 0.38% | $0.77 | 21.92% |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | 0.37% | $0.13 | 8.44% |
| PCG-PA | Pacific Gas and Electric Company | 0.37% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CTS | CTS Corporation | 0.36% | $0.16 | 8.09% |
| GVA | Granite Construction Incorporated | 0.36% | $0.43 | 12.45% |
| LCORX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| LCRIX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund Class Institutional | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| UHAL | U-Haul Holding Company | 0.36% | $0.18 | 17.87% |
| BOX | Box, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.10 | 6.61% |
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.31 | 47.04% |
| MCK | McKesson Corporation | 0.35% | $2.91 | 8.98% |
| CSWI | CSW Industrials, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.02 | 11.93% |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc. | 0.34% | $0.85 | 11.59% |
| SRBK | SR Bancorp, Inc. Common stock | 0.34% | $0.05 | 9.61% |
| VHAQ-UN | Viveon Health Acquisition Corp. | 0.34% | $0.04 | 17.38% |
| WWD | Woodward, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.05 | 14.70% |
| AGX | Argan, Inc. | 0.33% | $1.08 | 12.72% |
| PJT | PJT Partners Inc. | 0.33% | $0.56 | 13.70% |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 0.33% | $2.59 | 6.06% |
| LPLA | LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 0.32% | $1.16 | 11.15% |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | 0.31% | $2.04 | 8.98% |
| ESAB | ESAB Corporation | 0.30% | $0.34 | 8.52% |
| POWL | Powell Industries, Inc. | 0.30% | $1.05 | 7.31% |
| VC | Visteon Corporation | 0.30% | $0.29 | 2.59% |
| WST | West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | 0.30% | $0.83 | 12.34% |
| CASH | Pathward Financial, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.21 | 2.52% |
| NGS | Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.10 | 6.71% |
| PLUS | ePlus inc. | 0.29% | $0.25 | 5.41% |
| RVTY | Revvity, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.28 | 14.01% |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 0.28% | $1.65 | 9.48% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | 0.27% | $0.24 | 8.33% |
| VNT | Vontier Corporation | 0.27% | $0.10 | 3.64% |
| DBRG | DigitalBridge Group, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.04 | 9.84% |
| FOUR | Shift4 Payments, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.16 | 7.44% |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | 0.26% | $0.82 | 8.01% |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.29 | 10.22% |
| USB-PA | U.S. Bancorp PERP PFD SER A | 0.26% | $2.02 | 43.68% |