Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dongbang Transport Logistics Co., Ltd. (004140.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9,957.25 - $51,362.64$20,243.76
Multi-Stage$6,586.12 - $7,219.82$6,897.08
Blended Fair Value$13,570.42
Current Price$2,795.00
Upside385.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.30%-3.99%20.030.000.000.001.806.2312.839.268.3812.76
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-71.19%-51.43%38.47%10.57%-34.35%-57.58%
Dividend Yield--0.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.03%0.37%0.73%0.58%0.44%0.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12,430.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)955.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,474.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,486.151,553.84932.31
Cash Retained (M)11,474.8511,474.8511,474.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,486.15-1,553.84-932.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,988.709,921.0110,542.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)47.7347.7347.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share188.32207.85220.87
LTM Dividend per Share20.0320.0320.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share188.32207.85220.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend208.35227.88240.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Fair Value$9,957.25$20,243.76$51,362.64
Upside / Downside256.25%624.28%1,737.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12,430.7513,127.6013,863.5214,640.6915,461.4216,328.1716,818.01
Payout Ratio7.69%24.15%40.61%57.08%73.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)955.903,170.555,630.518,356.3011,370.0114,695.3515,556.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate4.61%5.61%6.61%
Year 1 PV (M)2,940.722,968.832,996.94
Year 2 PV (M)4,843.784,936.845,030.78
Year 3 PV (M)6,667.616,860.667,057.41
Year 4 PV (M)8,414.638,741.049,076.86
Year 5 PV (M)10,087.2510,578.7111,089.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)281,409.62295,120.21309,360.07
Equity Value (M)314,363.61329,206.29344,611.19
Shares Outstanding (M)47.7347.7347.73
Fair Value$6,586.12$6,897.08$7,219.82
Upside / Downside135.64%146.76%158.31%

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