Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Tongxing Environmental Protection Technology Co.,Ltd (003027.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.65 - $10.82$8.51
Multi-Stage$19.92 - $21.96$20.92
Blended Fair Value$14.72
Current Price$19.41
Upside-24.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS23.32%0.00%0.110.250.300.330.150.040.150.010.010.00
YoY Growth---57.05%-17.77%-8.33%122.23%296.45%-74.78%1,713.60%41.22%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.70%1.40%1.21%1.62%0.45%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)81.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.3010.196.11
Cash Retained (M)40.7040.7040.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.30-10.19-6.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.3930.5134.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)132.32132.32132.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate5.27%5.27%5.27%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.65$8.51$10.82
Upside / Downside-65.76%-56.14%-44.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)81.5180.7079.8979.0978.3077.5279.85
Payout Ratio50.08%58.06%66.05%74.03%82.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.8246.8552.7658.5564.2269.7773.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.27%5.27%5.27%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)44.0644.5144.96
Year 2 PV (M)46.6647.6248.58
Year 3 PV (M)48.6950.2051.73
Year 4 PV (M)50.2252.3054.44
Year 5 PV (M)51.3053.9756.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,394.672,519.372,649.20
Equity Value (M)2,635.602,767.962,905.68
Shares Outstanding (M)132.32132.32132.32
Fair Value$19.92$20.92$21.96
Upside / Downside2.62%7.77%13.13%

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