Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co., Ltd. (003012.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.37 - $10.75$7.46
Multi-Stage$7.65 - $8.38$8.00
Blended Fair Value$7.73
Current Price$7.18
Upside7.71%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS83.02%3.88%0.310.120.220.310.030.010.170.001.360.02
YoY Growth--160.63%-46.95%-27.79%1,081.63%74.06%-91.00%15,859.50%-99.92%7,613.74%-91.58%
Dividend Yield--4.90%1.55%2.54%3.04%0.12%0.09%0.00%0.00%8.34%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)368.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)288.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)80.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)73.7746.1127.66
Cash Retained (M)80.7680.7680.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-73.77-46.11-27.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)6.9934.6653.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.801,152.801,152.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate1.88%2.88%3.88%
Fair Value$5.37$7.46$10.75
Upside / Downside-25.26%3.94%49.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)368.84379.46390.38401.62413.18425.07437.83
Payout Ratio78.10%80.48%82.86%85.24%87.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)288.08305.40323.48342.35362.03382.57404.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate1.88%2.88%3.88%
Year 1 PV (M)283.34286.12288.90
Year 2 PV (M)278.44283.93289.48
Year 3 PV (M)273.39281.52289.81
Year 4 PV (M)268.23278.92289.92
Year 5 PV (M)262.97276.13289.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,447.687,820.448,207.98
Equity Value (M)8,814.049,227.069,655.90
Shares Outstanding (M)1,152.801,152.801,152.80
Fair Value$7.65$8.00$8.38
Upside / Downside6.49%11.48%16.66%

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