Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ganyuan Foods Co., Ltd. (002991.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$290.05 - $553.48$518.69
Multi-Stage$87.99 - $96.24$92.04
Blended Fair Value$305.37
Current Price$54.66
Upside458.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS33.50%0.00%3.241.091.110.761.090.760.650.010.020.00
YoY Growth--196.73%-1.31%44.97%-29.91%42.49%16.67%9,895.00%-58.11%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.44%1.23%1.20%1.40%1.32%1.37%1.17%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)255.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)166.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)88.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.0331.8919.14
Cash Retained (M)88.5288.5288.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.03-31.89-19.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.4956.6269.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)91.6891.6891.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.620.76
LTM Dividend per Share1.821.821.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.620.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.232.442.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$290.05$518.69$553.48
Upside / Downside430.64%848.94%912.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)255.14271.72289.38308.19328.23349.56360.05
Payout Ratio65.31%70.25%75.18%80.12%85.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)166.62190.87217.57246.93279.19314.60333.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)177.86179.54181.23
Year 2 PV (M)188.91192.51196.14
Year 3 PV (M)199.79205.52211.37
Year 4 PV (M)210.49218.58226.91
Year 5 PV (M)221.01231.68242.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,068.757,410.177,764.66
Equity Value (M)8,066.808,438.018,823.07
Shares Outstanding (M)91.6891.6891.68
Fair Value$87.99$92.04$96.24
Upside / Downside60.98%68.39%76.07%

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