Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Qiaoyin City Management Co.,Ltd. (002973.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Waste ManagementSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.51 - $97.50$91.37
Multi-Stage$13.91 - $15.21$14.55
Blended Fair Value$52.96
Current Price$15.89
Upside233.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.72%0.00%0.470.480.400.340.210.130.020.090.050.19
YoY Growth---0.68%20.18%17.58%60.11%57.25%475.90%-73.04%63.82%-72.15%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.90%4.54%3.54%2.76%1.07%0.74%0.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)196.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)117.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)79.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.3824.6114.77
Cash Retained (M)79.1679.1679.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.38-24.61-14.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.7854.5564.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)401.61401.61401.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.51$91.37$97.50
Upside / Downside123.48%475.00%513.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)196.88209.68223.31237.82253.28269.75277.84
Payout Ratio59.79%65.84%71.88%77.92%83.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)117.72138.04160.51185.31212.65242.77257.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.67%6.67%6.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)128.20129.42130.63
Year 2 PV (M)138.44141.07143.74
Year 3 PV (M)148.43152.69157.04
Year 4 PV (M)158.19164.28170.54
Year 5 PV (M)167.73175.83184.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,844.405,078.385,321.32
Equity Value (M)5,585.395,841.676,107.50
Shares Outstanding (M)401.61401.61401.61
Fair Value$13.91$14.55$15.21
Upside / Downside-12.48%-8.46%-4.29%

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