Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Colibri Technologies Co., Ltd. (002957.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.68 - $29.21$17.53
Multi-Stage$11.58 - $12.69$12.13
Blended Fair Value$14.83
Current Price$19.26
Upside-23.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-7.54%6.73%0.190.240.030.230.200.280.230.290.310.25
YoY Growth---19.07%605.88%-85.25%15.46%-30.56%21.39%-18.94%-7.29%26.87%145.26%
Dividend Yield--1.20%1.28%0.18%1.49%1.04%1.11%1.08%1.33%1.43%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)221.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)94.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)127.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)44.2927.6816.61
Cash Retained (M)127.04127.04127.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-44.29-27.68-16.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)82.7599.36110.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)415.03415.03415.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.240.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.49
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate3.51%4.51%5.51%
Fair Value$11.68$17.53$29.21
Upside / Downside-39.36%-8.96%51.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)221.43231.42241.86252.76264.16276.08284.36
Payout Ratio42.63%52.10%61.58%71.05%80.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)94.39120.58148.93179.59212.72248.47263.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.29%7.29%7.29%
Growth Rate3.51%4.51%5.51%
Year 1 PV (M)111.31112.38113.46
Year 2 PV (M)126.91129.37131.86
Year 3 PV (M)141.27145.41149.62
Year 4 PV (M)154.46160.52166.75
Year 5 PV (M)166.55174.75183.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,107.544,309.824,520.00
Equity Value (M)4,808.045,032.265,264.96
Shares Outstanding (M)415.03415.03415.03
Fair Value$11.58$12.13$12.69
Upside / Downside-39.85%-37.05%-34.13%

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