Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Zhejiang XinNong Chemical Co.,Ltd. (002942.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.90 - $3.96$3.44
Multi-Stage$5.63 - $6.19$5.90
Blended Fair Value$4.67
Current Price$18.69
Upside-75.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.81%-3.56%0.200.250.500.230.290.240.410.290.140.22
YoY Growth---20.00%-50.00%112.79%-18.14%18.18%-41.52%44.38%104.26%-37.38%-21.75%
Dividend Yield--1.29%1.90%2.56%1.35%1.34%1.21%1.69%1.80%0.88%1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)86.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)39.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.3310.836.50
Cash Retained (M)39.9439.9439.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.33-10.83-6.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)22.6029.1133.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)153.86153.86153.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate9.12%9.12%9.12%
Growth Rate-5.56%-4.56%-3.56%
Fair Value$2.90$3.44$3.96
Upside / Downside-84.49%-81.60%-78.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)86.6782.7278.9575.3471.9168.6370.69
Payout Ratio53.92%61.13%68.35%75.57%82.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.7350.5753.9656.9459.5361.7765.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.12%9.12%9.12%
Growth Rate-5.56%-4.56%-3.56%
Year 1 PV (M)45.8646.3446.83
Year 2 PV (M)44.3745.3246.27
Year 3 PV (M)42.4643.8245.21
Year 4 PV (M)40.2541.9943.77
Year 5 PV (M)37.8839.9242.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)655.15690.58727.53
Equity Value (M)865.97907.97951.67
Shares Outstanding (M)153.86153.86153.86
Fair Value$5.63$5.90$6.19
Upside / Downside-69.89%-68.43%-66.91%

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