Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Eaglerise Electric & Electronic (China) Co., Ltd (002922.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$112.82 - $132.92$124.56
Multi-Stage$74.48 - $81.72$78.03
Blended Fair Value$101.30
Current Price$21.07
Upside380.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.91%-3.26%0.380.260.180.130.090.070.080.020.170.08
YoY Growth--48.82%43.23%42.50%42.33%33.14%-17.12%368.56%-90.00%108.76%-84.62%
Dividend Yield--2.06%1.81%1.08%0.80%1.04%0.86%0.75%0.10%1.63%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)260.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)137.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)123.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.0332.5219.51
Cash Retained (M)123.07123.07123.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.03-32.52-19.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.0390.55103.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)389.26389.26389.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.230.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.530.580.62
WACC / Discount Rate3.00%3.00%3.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$112.82$124.56$132.92
Upside / Downside435.43%491.18%530.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)260.16277.07295.08314.26334.68356.44367.13
Payout Ratio52.70%60.16%67.62%75.08%82.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)137.09166.67199.52235.94276.24320.79339.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.00%3.00%3.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)160.29161.81163.33
Year 2 PV (M)184.54188.05191.60
Year 3 PV (M)209.86215.89222.03
Year 4 PV (M)236.31245.40254.74
Year 5 PV (M)263.91276.66289.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,938.0329,287.4530,688.51
Equity Value (M)28,992.9430,375.2631,810.11
Shares Outstanding (M)389.26389.26389.26
Fair Value$74.48$78.03$81.72
Upside / Downside253.50%270.35%287.85%

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