Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Cheng Chung Design Co., Ltd. (002811.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.81 - $7.70$6.12
Multi-Stage$10.31 - $11.33$10.81
Blended Fair Value$8.46
Current Price$12.18
Upside-30.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.10%14.76%0.390.030.480.390.230.190.120.120.060.07
YoY Growth--1,463.07%-94.81%25.07%67.75%18.75%58.50%0.00%117.14%-17.11%-31.25%
Dividend Yield--4.10%0.35%6.32%4.00%2.75%2.03%1.01%1.07%0.24%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)135.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)55.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.1816.9910.19
Cash Retained (M)55.9155.9155.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.18-16.99-10.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)28.7338.9245.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)294.43294.43294.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-1.17%-0.17%0.83%
Fair Value$4.81$6.12$7.70
Upside / Downside-60.54%-49.79%-36.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)135.91135.67135.44135.20134.97134.73138.78
Payout Ratio58.86%65.09%71.32%77.54%83.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.0088.3196.59104.84113.07121.26128.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-1.17%-0.17%0.83%
Year 1 PV (M)82.1582.9883.81
Year 2 PV (M)83.5985.2987.00
Year 3 PV (M)84.4086.9989.63
Year 4 PV (M)84.6788.1591.74
Year 5 PV (M)84.4888.8493.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,614.942,749.942,890.46
Equity Value (M)3,034.233,182.193,336.03
Shares Outstanding (M)294.43294.43294.43
Fair Value$10.31$10.81$11.33
Upside / Downside-15.39%-11.26%-6.97%

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