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Tian An China Investments Company Limited (0028.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$82.37 - $372.53$189.94
Multi-Stage$56.95 - $62.46$59.66
Blended Fair Value$124.80
Current Price$4.32
Upside2,788.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.55%11.59%0.200.250.200.200.200.210.210.000.150.10
YoY Growth---20.00%25.00%-2.30%0.00%-0.41%0.00%0.00%-100.00%50.00%53.85%
Dividend Yield--4.55%7.12%5.05%4.74%4.42%5.92%4.95%0.00%3.40%2.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,777.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)439.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,338.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)555.57347.23208.34
Cash Retained (M)2,338.052,338.052,338.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-555.57-347.23-208.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,782.471,990.812,129.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,466.071,466.071,466.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.221.361.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.221.361.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.521.661.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate4.28%5.28%6.28%
Fair Value$82.37$189.94$372.53
Upside / Downside1,806.74%4,296.82%8,523.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,777.872,924.413,078.693,241.103,412.083,592.083,699.84
Payout Ratio15.83%30.67%45.50%60.33%75.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)439.82896.811,400.801,955.462,564.743,232.873,422.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate4.28%5.28%6.28%
Year 1 PV (M)836.48844.50852.52
Year 2 PV (M)1,218.661,242.151,265.86
Year 3 PV (M)1,586.761,632.851,679.82
Year 4 PV (M)1,941.152,016.692,094.42
Year 5 PV (M)2,282.222,393.772,509.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)75,634.5179,331.4183,171.47
Equity Value (M)83,499.7787,461.3691,573.73
Shares Outstanding (M)1,466.071,466.071,466.07
Fair Value$56.95$59.66$62.46
Upside / Downside1,218.40%1,280.95%1,345.88%

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