Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Western Securities Co., Ltd. (002673.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.40 - $85.44$80.07
Multi-Stage$11.44 - $12.51$11.96
Blended Fair Value$46.02
Current Price$8.58
Upside436.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.91%27.84%0.250.170.210.140.080.080.120.170.270.09
YoY Growth--45.28%-18.33%50.93%65.69%10.97%-34.25%-33.72%-34.50%200.89%312.24%
Dividend Yield--3.20%2.45%3.30%1.93%0.95%0.92%0.99%1.79%1.66%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,917.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)975.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)942.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)383.60239.75143.85
Cash Retained (M)942.79942.79942.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-383.60-239.75-143.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)559.19703.04798.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,464.344,464.344,464.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.340.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.40$80.07$85.44
Upside / Downside207.74%833.22%895.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,917.982,042.642,175.422,316.822,467.412,627.792,706.63
Payout Ratio50.84%58.68%66.51%74.34%82.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)975.191,198.531,446.801,722.272,027.442,365.012,503.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.87%6.87%6.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,110.921,121.451,131.98
Year 2 PV (M)1,243.011,266.691,290.59
Year 3 PV (M)1,371.521,410.891,451.01
Year 4 PV (M)1,496.521,554.081,613.27
Year 5 PV (M)1,618.091,696.241,777.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,224.1146,360.1648,577.95
Equity Value (M)51,064.1853,409.5155,842.19
Shares Outstanding (M)4,464.344,464.344,464.34
Fair Value$11.44$11.96$12.51
Upside / Downside33.31%39.44%45.79%

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