Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group Co., Ltd. (002627.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.54 - $0.72$0.63
Multi-Stage$0.75 - $0.82$0.79
Blended Fair Value$0.71
Current Price$6.01
Upside-88.21%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.04%11.55%0.110.020.100.040.050.070.040.030.030.04
YoY Growth--504.09%-81.95%157.44%-15.00%-29.25%70.00%38.67%0.00%-25.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.17%0.35%1.76%0.54%0.82%1.25%0.81%0.44%0.37%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.3011.446.86
Cash Retained (M)15.5315.5315.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.30-11.44-6.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)-2.774.098.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)717.97717.97717.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%
Fair Value$0.54$0.63$0.72
Upside / Downside-91.01%-89.50%-88.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.5289.6987.8986.1384.4182.7285.20
Payout Ratio83.03%84.43%85.82%87.21%88.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.9975.7275.4375.1274.7974.4578.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.31%15.31%15.31%
Growth Rate-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%
Year 1 PV (M)64.9965.6666.33
Year 2 PV (M)55.5756.7257.89
Year 3 PV (M)47.5048.9950.50
Year 4 PV (M)40.6042.3044.05
Year 5 PV (M)34.6936.5138.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)298.18313.88330.22
Equity Value (M)541.54564.06587.41
Shares Outstanding (M)717.97717.97717.97
Fair Value$0.75$0.79$0.82
Upside / Downside-87.45%-86.93%-86.39%

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