Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Shenzhen Jieshun Science and Technology Industry Co.,Ltd. (002609.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.47 - $2.78$2.00
Multi-Stage$1.40 - $1.52$1.46
Blended Fair Value$1.73
Current Price$9.97
Upside-82.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-2.14%27.99%0.130.030.030.100.030.150.420.120.090.02
YoY Growth--345.48%-0.01%-69.76%233.01%-79.99%-64.35%239.52%33.11%299.36%104.32%
Dividend Yield--1.44%0.31%0.27%1.10%0.33%1.50%4.94%0.86%0.58%0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)59.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.997.504.50
Cash Retained (M)10.8110.8110.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.99-7.50-4.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.183.326.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)644.63644.63644.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.58%9.58%9.58%
Growth Rate4.28%5.28%6.28%
Fair Value$1.47$2.00$2.78
Upside / Downside-85.30%-79.99%-72.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)59.9763.1466.4869.9973.6877.5879.90
Payout Ratio81.97%83.58%85.18%86.79%88.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.1652.7756.6260.7465.1369.8273.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.58%9.58%9.58%
Growth Rate4.28%5.28%6.28%
Year 1 PV (M)47.7048.1648.61
Year 2 PV (M)46.2747.1648.06
Year 3 PV (M)44.8646.1647.49
Year 4 PV (M)43.4845.1846.92
Year 5 PV (M)42.1344.1946.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)678.04711.18745.60
Equity Value (M)902.48942.02983.01
Shares Outstanding (M)644.63644.63644.63
Fair Value$1.40$1.46$1.52
Upside / Downside-85.96%-85.34%-84.70%

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