Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Greatstar Industrial Co., Ltd (002444.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$51.96 - $146.77$80.97
Multi-Stage$34.48 - $37.70$36.06
Blended Fair Value$58.51
Current Price$30.77
Upside90.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS31.14%22.70%0.660.400.060.040.040.170.020.090.090.17
YoY Growth--62.83%573.71%35.23%22.19%-78.61%799.67%-79.09%0.00%-46.98%100.00%
Dividend Yield--2.22%1.52%0.32%0.27%0.10%1.81%0.15%0.77%0.52%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,523.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)307.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,215.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)504.67315.42189.25
Cash Retained (M)2,215.532,215.532,215.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-504.67-315.42-189.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,710.861,900.112,026.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,194.481,194.481,194.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.431.591.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.431.591.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.691.851.95
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$51.96$80.97$146.77
Upside / Downside68.87%163.15%376.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,523.352,687.362,862.043,048.083,246.203,457.203,560.92
Payout Ratio12.20%27.76%43.32%58.88%74.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)307.81745.981,239.811,794.692,416.463,111.483,293.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)678.39684.82691.25
Year 2 PV (M)1,025.321,044.841,064.56
Year 3 PV (M)1,349.711,388.461,427.94
Year 4 PV (M)1,652.651,716.211,781.58
Year 5 PV (M)1,935.172,028.642,125.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)34,539.0636,207.3137,939.41
Equity Value (M)41,180.3043,070.2845,030.42
Shares Outstanding (M)1,194.481,194.481,194.48
Fair Value$34.48$36.06$37.70
Upside / Downside12.04%17.18%22.52%

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