Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Longxing Chemical Stock Co., Ltd. (002442.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.96 - $34.77$32.59
Multi-Stage$5.36 - $5.85$5.60
Blended Fair Value$19.09
Current Price$6.26
Upside205.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.23%19.17%0.210.100.160.060.070.090.080.100.110.16
YoY Growth--107.29%-37.65%156.41%-12.37%-20.46%9.40%-12.00%-13.55%-28.66%321.04%
Dividend Yield--3.34%2.09%3.12%1.05%1.56%2.37%1.04%0.83%0.84%1.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)90.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)90.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.2011.376.82
Cash Retained (M)0.190.190.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.20-11.37-6.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)-18.01-11.18-6.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)520.34520.34520.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.03-0.02-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.96$32.59$34.77
Upside / Downside139.05%420.54%455.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)90.9896.89103.19109.90117.04124.65128.39
Payout Ratio99.79%97.83%95.88%93.92%91.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)90.7994.7998.93103.21107.63112.18118.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)88.1889.0289.85
Year 2 PV (M)85.6287.2588.89
Year 3 PV (M)83.0985.4887.91
Year 4 PV (M)80.6083.7086.89
Year 5 PV (M)78.1681.9385.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,373.382,488.022,607.04
Equity Value (M)2,789.032,915.403,046.44
Shares Outstanding (M)520.34520.34520.34
Fair Value$5.36$5.60$5.85
Upside / Downside-14.38%-10.50%-6.47%

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