Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. (002237.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.52 - $14.12$10.20
Multi-Stage$10.38 - $11.37$10.87
Blended Fair Value$10.54
Current Price$14.97
Upside-29.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.82%1.61%0.350.210.290.330.260.290.370.300.200.29
YoY Growth--65.52%-28.25%-12.78%26.44%-7.91%-22.44%25.08%44.99%-30.77%-0.08%
Dividend Yield--3.05%1.79%2.48%3.11%2.25%2.25%3.73%2.84%1.81%2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)633.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)389.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)244.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)126.7579.2247.53
Cash Retained (M)244.20244.20244.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-126.75-79.22-47.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)117.45164.98196.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,278.861,278.861,278.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.400.430.46
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate1.82%2.82%3.82%
Fair Value$7.52$10.20$14.12
Upside / Downside-49.78%-31.84%-5.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)633.76651.62669.99688.87708.29728.25750.10
Payout Ratio61.47%67.17%72.88%78.59%84.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)389.56437.73488.30541.37597.04655.43693.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate1.82%2.82%3.82%
Year 1 PV (M)404.40408.37412.34
Year 2 PV (M)416.78425.00433.31
Year 3 PV (M)426.90439.60452.55
Year 4 PV (M)434.96452.30470.15
Year 5 PV (M)441.14463.23486.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,151.2711,709.7412,290.36
Equity Value (M)13,275.4413,898.2414,544.92
Shares Outstanding (M)1,278.861,278.861,278.86
Fair Value$10.38$10.87$11.37
Upside / Downside-30.66%-27.40%-24.03%

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