Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GRG Banking Equipment Co., Ltd. (002152.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Business Equipment & SuppliesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.61 - $69.05$64.71
Multi-Stage$40.20 - $44.10$42.11
Blended Fair Value$53.41
Current Price$13.88
Upside284.82%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.78%13.65%0.220.210.160.160.120.120.200.070.090.22
YoY Growth--5.54%31.12%1.11%28.57%1.44%-39.69%197.56%-24.37%-59.67%260.00%
Dividend Yield--1.66%1.72%1.30%1.48%1.07%1.40%2.58%0.94%1.04%2.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)849.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)553.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)295.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)169.83106.1463.68
Cash Retained (M)295.71295.71295.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-169.83-106.14-63.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)125.88189.57232.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,445.552,445.552,445.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.280.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate2.26%2.26%2.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$58.61$64.71$69.05
Upside / Downside322.26%366.22%397.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)849.13904.32963.101,025.701,092.371,163.381,198.28
Payout Ratio65.18%70.14%75.11%80.07%85.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)553.42634.29723.34821.28928.901,047.041,108.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.26%2.26%2.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)614.46620.28626.10
Year 2 PV (M)678.80691.73704.79
Year 3 PV (M)746.61768.05789.89
Year 4 PV (M)818.04849.50881.86
Year 5 PV (M)893.25936.39981.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,560.0499,127.32103,869.41
Equity Value (M)98,311.20102,993.27107,853.23
Shares Outstanding (M)2,445.552,445.552,445.55
Fair Value$40.20$42.11$44.10
Upside / Downside189.63%203.42%217.74%

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