Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Shagang Co., Ltd. (002075.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.60 - $6.04$3.81
Multi-Stage$4.53 - $4.98$4.75
Blended Fair Value$4.28
Current Price$5.62
Upside-23.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.19%7.11%0.090.050.080.100.100.030.030.000.000.01
YoY Growth--78.19%-37.50%-20.00%-0.59%233.52%-0.04%3,149.18%-73.71%-73.65%-70.11%
Dividend Yield--1.54%1.10%1.91%1.75%1.11%0.33%0.29%0.01%0.02%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)288.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)121.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)166.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.6636.0421.62
Cash Retained (M)166.38166.38166.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.66-36.04-21.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.72130.34144.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,209.772,209.772,209.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate5.48%5.48%5.48%
Growth Rate1.41%2.41%3.41%
Fair Value$2.60$3.81$6.04
Upside / Downside-53.67%-32.14%7.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)288.30295.25302.37309.66317.13324.78334.52
Payout Ratio42.29%51.83%61.37%70.92%80.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)121.92153.04185.58219.60255.16292.30309.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.48%5.48%5.48%
Growth Rate1.41%2.41%3.41%
Year 1 PV (M)143.67145.09146.51
Year 2 PV (M)163.56166.81170.08
Year 3 PV (M)181.71187.14192.67
Year 4 PV (M)198.21206.15214.32
Year 5 PV (M)213.17223.89235.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,111.609,569.7910,046.23
Equity Value (M)10,011.9410,498.8711,004.85
Shares Outstanding (M)2,209.772,209.772,209.77
Fair Value$4.53$4.75$4.98
Upside / Downside-19.38%-15.46%-11.39%

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