Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Gotion High-tech Co.,Ltd. (002074.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$321.27 - $378.51$354.72
Multi-Stage$209.94 - $230.38$219.97
Blended Fair Value$287.34
Current Price$46.68
Upside515.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.72%42.50%0.880.890.620.270.190.280.160.130.110.02
YoY Growth---0.92%44.22%128.84%41.95%-32.35%75.86%26.37%15.65%421.53%-17.99%
Dividend Yield--4.05%4.32%2.07%0.78%0.53%1.61%0.89%0.57%0.38%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,327.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,075.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,251.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)665.54415.96249.58
Cash Retained (M)2,251.982,251.982,251.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-665.54-415.96-249.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,586.441,836.022,002.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,748.411,748.411,748.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.911.051.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.911.051.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.521.671.76
WACC / Discount Rate3.14%3.14%3.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$321.27$354.72$378.51
Upside / Downside588.24%659.90%710.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,327.683,543.983,774.334,019.674,280.944,559.204,695.98
Payout Ratio32.33%43.86%55.40%66.93%78.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,075.701,554.412,090.812,690.373,359.054,103.284,343.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate3.14%3.14%3.14%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,492.961,507.111,521.26
Year 2 PV (M)1,928.761,965.502,002.58
Year 3 PV (M)2,383.732,452.162,521.89
Year 4 PV (M)2,858.532,968.463,081.53
Year 5 PV (M)3,353.823,515.813,684.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)355,039.35372,187.88389,992.73
Equity Value (M)367,057.15384,596.92402,804.00
Shares Outstanding (M)1,748.411,748.411,748.41
Fair Value$209.94$219.97$230.38
Upside / Downside349.74%371.23%393.54%

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