Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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GCL Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. (002015.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.93 - $8.36$6.43
Multi-Stage$9.59 - $10.55$10.06
Blended Fair Value$8.24
Current Price$11.86
Upside-30.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.01%33.97%0.430.190.200.130.450.340.320.000.000.00
YoY Growth--121.42%-5.51%60.04%-71.53%33.95%4.54%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-90.91%
Dividend Yield--5.66%1.82%1.79%0.74%4.86%5.55%5.18%0.00%0.00%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)645.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)239.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)405.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)129.0580.6548.39
Cash Retained (M)405.32405.32405.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-129.05-80.65-48.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)276.27324.66356.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,585.471,585.471,585.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.200.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-0.25%0.75%1.75%
Fair Value$4.93$6.43$8.36
Upside / Downside-58.41%-45.82%-29.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)645.24650.06654.92659.82664.76669.73689.82
Payout Ratio37.18%47.75%58.31%68.87%79.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)239.92310.38381.89454.44528.06602.75638.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-0.25%0.75%1.75%
Year 1 PV (M)289.01291.90294.80
Year 2 PV (M)331.09337.76344.50
Year 3 PV (M)366.86378.00389.37
Year 4 PV (M)396.93413.08429.73
Year 5 PV (M)421.87443.44465.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,406.1114,091.7214,805.10
Equity Value (M)15,211.8615,955.9216,729.39
Shares Outstanding (M)1,585.471,585.471,585.47
Fair Value$9.59$10.06$10.55
Upside / Downside-19.10%-15.14%-11.03%

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