Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Chongqing Zongshen Power Machinery Co.,Ltd (001696.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$122.05 - $143.79$134.75
Multi-Stage$96.65 - $106.07$101.28
Blended Fair Value$118.02
Current Price$24.54
Upside380.91%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.47%25.90%0.300.290.250.300.300.230.030.030.360.03
YoY Growth--3.97%15.46%-16.67%0.00%30.43%666.67%0.00%-91.67%1,100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.36%3.49%3.39%5.07%4.19%4.17%0.43%0.49%4.16%0.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)827.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)280.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)547.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)165.57103.4862.09
Cash Retained (M)547.00547.00547.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-165.57-103.48-62.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)381.43443.52484.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,145.001,145.001,145.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.630.67
WACC / Discount Rate-0.78%-0.78%-0.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$122.05$134.75$143.79
Upside / Downside397.34%449.12%485.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)827.87881.68938.991,000.031,065.031,134.251,168.28
Payout Ratio33.93%45.14%56.36%67.57%78.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)280.87398.00529.18675.72839.091,020.831,080.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-0.78%-0.78%-0.78%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)397.38401.15404.91
Year 2 PV (M)527.53537.57547.72
Year 3 PV (M)672.56691.87711.54
Year 4 PV (M)833.85865.92898.90
Year 5 PV (M)1,012.871,061.801,112.59
PV of Terminal Value (M)107,223.96112,402.92117,780.08
Equity Value (M)110,668.15115,961.22121,455.75
Shares Outstanding (M)1,145.001,145.001,145.00
Fair Value$96.65$101.28$106.07
Upside / Downside293.86%312.70%332.25%

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