Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hefei Snowky Elect (001387.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.25 - $10.56$8.13
Multi-Stage$23.70 - $26.15$24.90
Blended Fair Value$16.52
Current Price$13.50
Upside22.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.270.000.000.030.040.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--13,997.44%-54.41%-84.95%-25.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%0.01%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)93.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)56.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.7811.747.04
Cash Retained (M)56.6756.6756.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.78-11.74-7.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)37.8944.9349.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)177.40177.40177.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.25$8.13$10.56
Upside / Downside-53.68%-39.75%-21.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)93.9192.9792.0491.1290.2189.3091.98
Payout Ratio39.65%49.72%59.79%69.86%79.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.2346.2255.0363.6572.1080.3785.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.64%4.64%4.64%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)43.7344.1744.62
Year 2 PV (M)49.2550.2651.28
Year 3 PV (M)53.8955.5657.26
Year 4 PV (M)57.7560.1462.61
Year 5 PV (M)60.9064.0767.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,938.234,143.314,356.84
Equity Value (M)4,203.764,417.524,639.99
Shares Outstanding (M)177.40177.40177.40
Fair Value$23.70$24.90$26.15
Upside / Downside75.52%84.45%93.74%

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