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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong AVCiT Technology Holding Co., Ltd. (001229.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$116.64 - $137.42$128.78
Multi-Stage$86.45 - $94.83$90.57
Blended Fair Value$109.67
Current Price$33.87
Upside223.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS39.89%0.00%0.610.410.000.000.000.110.700.000.000.00
YoY Growth--50.00%21,760.67%-9.07%0.00%-100.00%-83.70%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.88%1.08%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)68.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.618.515.11
Cash Retained (M)11.8611.8611.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.61-8.51-5.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.763.356.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)98.5298.5298.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.030.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.030.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.600.64
WACC / Discount Rate0.73%0.73%0.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$116.64$128.78$137.42
Upside / Downside244.36%280.22%305.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)68.0772.5077.2182.2387.5793.2796.06
Payout Ratio82.58%84.06%85.55%87.03%88.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.2160.9466.0571.5677.5283.9488.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.73%0.73%0.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)59.9460.5161.07
Year 2 PV (M)63.8965.1066.33
Year 3 PV (M)68.0870.0372.02
Year 4 PV (M)72.5275.3178.18
Year 5 PV (M)77.2380.9684.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,175.518,570.398,980.39
Equity Value (M)8,517.168,922.309,342.82
Shares Outstanding (M)98.5298.5298.52
Fair Value$86.45$90.57$94.83
Upside / Downside155.25%167.39%179.99%

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