Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co., Ltd. (001213.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.99 - $23.59$22.09
Multi-Stage$17.14 - $18.94$18.02
Blended Fair Value$20.06
Current Price$4.17
Upside381.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.060.040.020.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--56.76%58.80%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.45%0.91%0.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)566.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)271.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)295.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.3570.8442.51
Cash Retained (M)295.65295.65295.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.35-70.84-42.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)182.29224.80253.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,444.614,444.614,444.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate-7.90%-7.90%-7.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$19.99$22.09$23.59
Upside / Downside379.48%429.79%465.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)566.76561.09555.48549.92544.42538.98555.15
Payout Ratio47.84%56.27%64.70%73.13%81.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)271.11315.72359.40402.18444.07485.08513.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-7.90%-7.90%-7.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)339.33342.79346.25
Year 2 PV (M)415.17423.68432.28
Year 3 PV (M)499.33514.77530.53
Year 4 PV (M)592.57617.12642.44
Year 5 PV (M)695.70731.92769.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)73,647.2477,482.2381,475.33
Equity Value (M)76,189.3380,112.5284,196.47
Shares Outstanding (M)4,444.614,444.614,444.61
Fair Value$17.14$18.02$18.94
Upside / Downside311.08%332.25%354.28%

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