Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Minmetals Rare Earth Co., Ltd. (000831.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.04 - $4.57$2.95
Multi-Stage$1.58 - $1.72$1.65
Blended Fair Value$2.30
Current Price$51.75
Upside-95.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.77%6.37%0.080.040.110.080.050.040.000.000.100.00
YoY Growth--107.72%-64.44%35.56%83.70%13.03%46,918.17%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.27%0.15%0.34%0.29%0.26%0.41%0.00%0.00%0.74%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)108.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)87.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.6513.538.12
Cash Retained (M)20.6520.6520.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.65-13.53-8.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.017.1112.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,061.441,061.441,061.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.04$2.95$4.57
Upside / Downside-96.06%-94.29%-91.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)108.27115.31122.81130.79139.29148.35152.80
Payout Ratio80.93%82.74%84.56%86.37%88.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)87.6395.41103.84112.97122.84133.51141.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)86.1486.9687.78
Year 2 PV (M)84.6586.2687.89
Year 3 PV (M)83.1485.5387.96
Year 4 PV (M)81.6284.7687.99
Year 5 PV (M)80.1083.9687.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,261.861,322.811,386.09
Equity Value (M)1,677.511,750.281,825.68
Shares Outstanding (M)1,061.441,061.441,061.44
Fair Value$1.58$1.65$1.72
Upside / Downside-96.95%-96.81%-96.68%

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