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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company (000786.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$124.62 - $363.56$340.71
Multi-Stage$50.45 - $55.18$52.77
Blended Fair Value$196.74
Current Price$23.66
Upside731.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.77%19.60%0.880.660.660.550.080.460.360.180.150.18
YoY Growth--33.87%-0.01%18.89%567.13%-82.05%29.58%97.22%22.90%-17.65%21.49%
Dividend Yield--3.01%2.23%2.44%1.82%0.19%1.95%1.69%0.71%1.18%1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,088.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,524.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,564.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)617.63386.02231.61
Cash Retained (M)1,564.071,564.071,564.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-617.63-386.02-231.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)946.441,178.051,332.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,689.301,689.301,689.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.700.79
LTM Dividend per Share0.900.900.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.700.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.461.601.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$124.62$340.71$363.56
Upside / Downside426.73%1,340.01%1,436.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,088.163,288.893,502.673,730.343,972.824,231.054,357.98
Payout Ratio49.35%57.48%65.61%73.74%81.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,524.091,890.532,298.162,750.803,252.573,807.954,031.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,754.551,771.181,787.81
Year 2 PV (M)1,979.462,017.172,055.22
Year 3 PV (M)2,198.922,262.042,326.36
Year 4 PV (M)2,413.022,505.822,601.27
Year 5 PV (M)2,621.862,748.492,879.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)74,250.7577,837.0981,560.68
Equity Value (M)85,218.5589,141.7893,211.32
Shares Outstanding (M)1,689.301,689.301,689.30
Fair Value$50.45$52.77$55.18
Upside / Downside113.21%123.03%133.21%

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