Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Tibet Development Co., Ltd. (000752.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.58 - $8.84$7.07
Multi-Stage$14.02 - $15.46$14.72
Blended Fair Value$10.90
Current Price$11.12
Upside-2.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.020.040.060.03
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-57.41%-39.83%120.83%-62.49%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.19%0.27%0.39%0.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)147.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)127.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.4218.3911.03
Cash Retained (M)127.11127.11127.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.42-18.39-11.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)97.69108.72116.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)263.67263.67263.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.410.44
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.410.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate5.84%5.84%5.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.58$7.07$8.84
Upside / Downside-49.82%-36.45%-20.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)147.11145.64144.18142.74141.31139.90144.10
Payout Ratio13.60%28.88%44.16%59.44%74.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.0042.0663.6784.84105.59125.91133.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.84%5.84%5.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)39.3339.7440.14
Year 2 PV (M)55.6956.8457.99
Year 3 PV (M)69.4171.5673.75
Year 4 PV (M)80.8084.1587.60
Year 5 PV (M)90.1194.8199.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,360.103,535.073,717.25
Equity Value (M)3,695.453,882.154,076.42
Shares Outstanding (M)263.67263.67263.67
Fair Value$14.02$14.72$15.46
Upside / Downside26.04%32.40%39.03%

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