Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SINOPEC Shandong Taishan Pectroleum CO.,LTD. (000554.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.45 - $7.88$5.90
Multi-Stage$7.78 - $8.55$8.16
Blended Fair Value$7.03
Current Price$6.65
Upside5.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%36.78%0.050.030.010.020.010.000.010.000.000.02
YoY Growth--69.96%177.14%-44.68%289.79%0.00%-100.00%255.27%-29.78%-75.63%598.53%
Dividend Yield--0.88%0.58%0.21%0.40%0.12%0.00%0.15%0.04%0.04%0.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)159.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.84
(=) Cash Retained (M)97.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.8419.9011.94
Cash Retained (M)97.3797.3797.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.84-19.90-11.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)65.5377.4785.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)480.77480.77480.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate0.48%1.48%2.48%
Fair Value$4.45$5.90$7.88
Upside / Downside-33.09%-11.26%18.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)159.21161.56163.95166.38168.84171.34176.48
Payout Ratio38.84%49.07%59.30%69.54%79.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.8479.2897.23115.69134.68154.21163.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate0.48%1.48%2.48%
Year 1 PV (M)73.7474.4775.20
Year 2 PV (M)84.1085.7987.48
Year 3 PV (M)93.0795.8898.74
Year 4 PV (M)100.77104.84109.03
Year 5 PV (M)107.31112.75118.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,280.943,447.483,620.73
Equity Value (M)3,739.923,921.214,109.61
Shares Outstanding (M)480.77480.77480.77
Fair Value$7.78$8.16$8.55
Upside / Downside16.98%22.65%28.54%

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