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Guangzhou Hengyun Enterprises Holding Ltd (000531.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.84 - $22.20$13.29
Multi-Stage$11.32 - $12.41$11.86
Blended Fair Value$12.57
Current Price$6.06
Upside107.48%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.51%5.28%0.440.350.410.390.240.350.290.330.200.34
YoY Growth--24.81%-14.45%4.62%65.53%-32.57%22.58%-14.12%64.32%-41.05%31.57%
Dividend Yield--7.06%5.80%6.45%5.78%2.59%6.30%4.57%5.75%2.14%4.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)422.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)287.83
(=) Cash Retained (M)134.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.4252.7631.66
Cash Retained (M)134.27134.27134.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.42-52.76-31.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)49.8581.51102.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,038.911,038.911,038.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate2.51%3.51%4.51%
Fair Value$8.84$13.29$22.20
Upside / Downside45.87%119.28%266.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)422.10436.92452.27468.16484.60501.62516.67
Payout Ratio68.19%72.55%76.91%81.28%85.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)287.83317.00347.86380.50415.00451.46477.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate2.51%3.51%4.51%
Year 1 PV (M)295.38298.26301.14
Year 2 PV (M)302.03307.95313.93
Year 3 PV (M)307.84316.94326.21
Year 4 PV (M)312.86325.25338.00
Year 5 PV (M)317.14332.91349.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,230.0310,738.8311,267.67
Equity Value (M)11,765.2812,320.1412,896.26
Shares Outstanding (M)1,038.911,038.911,038.91
Fair Value$11.32$11.86$12.41
Upside / Downside86.87%95.69%104.84%

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