Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Bingshan Refrigeration & Heat Transfer Technologies Co., Ltd. (000530.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.30 - $9.63$5.19
Multi-Stage$2.18 - $2.38$2.28
Blended Fair Value$3.73
Current Price$6.11
Upside-38.92%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.88%0.10%0.070.050.040.030.060.070.070.090.050.07
YoY Growth--36.61%36.33%23.85%-47.52%-20.94%-0.29%-15.89%71.77%-30.28%5.04%
Dividend Yield--1.21%1.13%0.81%0.66%1.45%1.97%1.49%1.68%0.63%1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)106.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)90.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.2113.267.95
Cash Retained (M)90.0690.0690.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.21-13.26-7.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.8576.8082.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)809.98809.98809.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3.30$5.19$9.63
Upside / Downside-46.04%-15.09%57.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)106.05112.95120.29128.11136.43145.30149.66
Payout Ratio15.08%30.07%45.05%60.03%75.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.9933.9654.1976.91102.35130.77138.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)30.9031.2031.49
Year 2 PV (M)44.8845.7346.60
Year 3 PV (M)57.9659.6361.32
Year 4 PV (M)70.2072.9075.68
Year 5 PV (M)81.6385.5789.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,476.741,548.061,622.12
Equity Value (M)1,762.321,843.101,926.88
Shares Outstanding (M)809.98809.98809.98
Fair Value$2.18$2.28$2.38
Upside / Downside-64.39%-62.76%-61.06%

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