Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shenyang Machine Tool Co., Ltd. (000410.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.22 - $0.29$0.26
Multi-Stage$0.76 - $0.85$0.80
Blended Fair Value$0.53
Current Price$7.22
Upside-92.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.30%-25.79%0.020.020.040.040.050.060.540.610.540.49
YoY Growth--8.14%-45.94%-5.75%-23.96%-18.29%-88.54%-11.93%12.97%10.43%17.53%
Dividend Yield--0.28%0.28%0.60%0.81%1.31%1.26%6.93%5.67%5.13%2.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)131.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)102.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.2916.439.86
Cash Retained (M)102.23102.23102.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.29-16.43-9.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)75.9485.8092.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,651.531,651.531,651.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.070.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.37%6.37%6.37%
Growth Rate-17.19%-16.19%-15.19%
Fair Value$0.22$0.26$0.29
Upside / Downside-96.90%-96.42%-95.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)131.46110.1792.3377.3864.8554.3555.98
Payout Ratio22.24%35.79%49.34%62.89%76.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.2339.4345.5648.6749.5848.9151.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.37%6.37%6.37%
Growth Rate-17.19%-16.19%-15.19%
Year 1 PV (M)36.6337.0737.51
Year 2 PV (M)39.3140.2741.23
Year 3 PV (M)39.0140.4441.91
Year 4 PV (M)36.9138.7340.61
Year 5 PV (M)33.8335.9238.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,063.521,129.311,198.31
Equity Value (M)1,249.211,321.741,397.69
Shares Outstanding (M)1,651.531,651.531,651.53
Fair Value$0.76$0.80$0.85
Upside / Downside-89.52%-88.92%-88.28%

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