Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Changhong Huayi Compressor Co., Ltd. (000404.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.13 - $29.53$19.03
Multi-Stage$9.29 - $10.15$9.71
Blended Fair Value$14.37
Current Price$7.11
Upside102.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS24.63%19.39%0.340.410.280.180.100.110.140.110.110.07
YoY Growth---16.48%43.50%58.19%85.61%-14.56%-18.77%30.42%-3.12%60.51%18.77%
Dividend Yield--4.42%5.76%4.63%3.60%2.14%3.21%2.80%1.84%1.23%0.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)454.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)413.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)90.8356.7734.06
Cash Retained (M)413.98413.98413.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-90.83-56.77-34.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)323.16357.22379.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)694.48694.48694.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.510.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.510.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.13$19.03$29.53
Upside / Downside84.72%167.64%315.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)454.14483.66515.10548.58584.24622.21640.88
Payout Ratio8.84%25.07%41.31%57.54%73.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.16121.27212.76315.64430.98559.99592.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)109.51110.55111.59
Year 2 PV (M)173.49176.79180.13
Year 3 PV (M)232.41239.08245.88
Year 4 PV (M)286.56297.58308.91
Year 5 PV (M)336.21352.45369.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,310.415,566.915,833.22
Equity Value (M)6,448.596,743.357,049.03
Shares Outstanding (M)694.48694.48694.48
Fair Value$9.29$9.71$10.15
Upside / Downside30.60%36.57%42.76%

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