Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Xinjiang International Industry Co.,Ltd (000159.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.50 - $0.72$0.61
Multi-Stage$0.88 - $0.96$0.92
Blended Fair Value$0.76
Current Price$5.68
Upside-86.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.42%-5.01%0.070.040.060.080.080.080.050.110.100.12
YoY Growth--71.48%-27.96%-24.12%-0.78%0.09%72.75%-59.85%8.92%-10.50%-4.93%
Dividend Yield--1.38%0.74%0.78%1.30%1.33%1.57%0.44%2.48%1.05%1.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.684.182.51
Cash Retained (M)8.648.648.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.68-4.18-2.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.964.466.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)480.93480.93480.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.50$0.61$0.72
Upside / Downside-91.20%-89.29%-87.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.4033.0732.7432.4132.0931.7732.72
Payout Ratio74.14%77.31%80.49%83.66%86.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.7725.5726.3527.1127.8628.5930.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.89%8.89%8.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)23.2423.4823.72
Year 2 PV (M)21.7822.2222.67
Year 3 PV (M)20.3721.0021.64
Year 4 PV (M)19.0319.8220.63
Year 5 PV (M)17.7518.6719.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)318.94335.54352.84
Equity Value (M)421.10440.73461.13
Shares Outstanding (M)480.93480.93480.93
Fair Value$0.88$0.92$0.96
Upside / Downside-84.58%-83.87%-83.12%

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