Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

V-ZUG Holding AG (VZUG.SW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.96 - $67.97$55.10
Multi-Stage$97.66 - $107.64$102.55
Blended Fair Value$78.83
Current Price$64.80
Upside21.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.002.344.687.020.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-50.00%-33.33%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%3.30%6.59%9.89%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.073.792.28
Cash Retained (M)24.5724.5724.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.07-3.79-2.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.5020.7822.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6.416.416.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.893.243.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.900.900.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.893.243.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.794.144.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$43.96$55.10$67.97
Upside / Downside-32.16%-14.97%4.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30.3530.0529.7529.4529.1528.8629.73
Payout Ratio19.03%33.23%47.42%61.61%75.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.789.9814.1118.1422.1025.9827.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.44%6.44%6.44%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)9.289.389.47
Year 2 PV (M)12.2012.4512.70
Year 3 PV (M)14.5915.0415.50
Year 4 PV (M)16.5317.2217.92
Year 5 PV (M)18.0719.0119.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)555.27584.18614.29
Equity Value (M)625.94657.28689.88
Shares Outstanding (M)6.416.416.41
Fair Value$97.66$102.55$107.64
Upside / Downside50.71%58.26%66.11%

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