Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Unilever PLC (ULVR.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.34 - $97.52$73.24
Multi-Stage$103.32 - $113.42$108.27
Blended Fair Value$90.76
Current Price$51.76
Upside75.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.52%3.08%1.721.741.731.791.711.681.621.561.441.33
YoY Growth---1.01%0.79%-3.44%4.77%1.66%3.52%3.83%8.51%8.35%4.45%
Dividend Yield--3.14%3.98%3.66%3.82%3.48%3.27%3.56%3.37%3.73%3.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,439.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,597.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,842.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,087.801,304.88782.93
Cash Retained (M)2,842.002,842.002,842.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,087.80-1,304.88-782.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)754.201,537.132,059.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,503.852,503.852,503.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.610.82
LTM Dividend per Share3.033.033.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.610.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.343.653.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate0.29%1.29%2.29%
Fair Value$55.34$73.24$97.52
Upside / Downside6.91%41.51%88.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,439.0010,573.9710,710.6910,849.1710,989.4411,131.5311,465.47
Payout Ratio72.78%76.22%79.67%83.11%86.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,597.008,059.498,532.689,016.759,511.9110,018.3810,605.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate0.29%1.29%2.29%
Year 1 PV (M)7,504.317,579.137,653.95
Year 2 PV (M)7,397.607,545.867,695.58
Year 3 PV (M)7,278.787,498.687,722.97
Year 4 PV (M)7,149.557,438.997,737.14
Year 5 PV (M)7,011.507,368.097,739.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)222,363.33233,672.30245,436.79
Equity Value (M)258,705.07271,103.06283,985.48
Shares Outstanding (M)2,503.852,503.852,503.85
Fair Value$103.32$108.27$113.42
Upside / Downside99.62%109.19%119.13%

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