Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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The Timken Company (TKR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.30 - $70.34$56.16
Multi-Stage$53.56 - $58.61$56.04
Blended Fair Value$56.10
Current Price$75.18
Upside-25.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.51%0.62%1.371.341.301.311.241.211.221.181.161.24
YoY Growth--2.23%2.51%-0.54%5.98%2.47%-0.93%2.88%2.08%-6.21%-3.65%
Dividend Yield--1.90%1.52%1.59%2.16%1.52%3.73%2.68%2.70%2.57%3.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)297.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)97.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)199.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)59.4637.1622.30
Cash Retained (M)199.50199.50199.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-59.46-37.16-22.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)140.04162.34177.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.3670.3670.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.992.312.52
LTM Dividend per Share1.391.391.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.992.312.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.383.703.91
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate1.80%2.80%3.80%
Fair Value$44.30$56.16$70.34
Upside / Downside-41.07%-25.30%-6.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)297.30305.64314.21323.03332.09341.40351.64
Payout Ratio32.90%44.32%55.74%67.16%78.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)97.80135.45175.13216.94260.95307.26325.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.57%9.57%9.57%
Growth Rate1.80%2.80%3.80%
Year 1 PV (M)122.41123.62124.82
Year 2 PV (M)143.04145.87148.72
Year 3 PV (M)160.13164.90169.76
Year 4 PV (M)174.08181.02188.17
Year 5 PV (M)185.25194.53204.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,983.303,132.733,288.09
Equity Value (M)3,768.233,942.674,123.73
Shares Outstanding (M)70.3670.3670.36
Fair Value$53.56$56.04$58.61
Upside / Downside-28.76%-25.46%-22.04%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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