Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk. (SSMS.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13,269.70 - $25,297.54$23,707.50
Multi-Stage$3,953.53 - $4,328.02$4,137.33
Blended Fair Value$13,922.41
Current Price$1,645.00
Upside746.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.0074.64155.1130.490.002.7224.7918.6417.6722.65
YoY Growth---100.00%-51.88%408.70%0.00%-100.00%-89.05%32.99%5.51%-22.00%335.83%
Dividend Yield--0.00%6.79%9.18%2.86%0.00%0.29%2.33%1.32%1.07%1.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,211,610.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)456,244.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)755,366.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)242,322.11151,451.3290,870.79
Cash Retained (M)755,366.31755,366.31755,366.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-242,322.11-151,451.32-90,870.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)513,044.21603,915.00664,495.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,525.009,525.009,525.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share53.8663.4069.76
LTM Dividend per Share47.9047.9047.90
(+) Excess Retained per Share53.8663.4069.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend101.76111.30117.66
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13,269.70$23,707.50$25,297.54
Upside / Downside706.67%1,341.19%1,437.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,211,610.531,290,365.221,374,238.961,463,564.491,558,696.181,660,011.431,709,811.78
Payout Ratio37.66%48.12%58.59%69.06%79.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)456,244.22620,985.82805,216.191,010,772.841,239,649.821,494,010.291,581,575.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)578,647.74584,132.56589,617.37
Year 2 PV (M)699,161.75712,478.82725,921.52
Year 3 PV (M)817,807.92841,284.25865,205.61
Year 4 PV (M)934,607.70970,550.071,007,519.30
Year 5 PV (M)1,049,582.321,100,277.541,152,912.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,577,520.0735,199,326.8436,883,203.98
Equity Value (M)37,657,327.5039,408,050.0841,224,380.76
Shares Outstanding (M)9,525.009,525.009,525.00
Fair Value$3,953.53$4,137.33$4,328.02
Upside / Downside140.34%151.51%163.10%

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