Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sofina S.A. (SOF.BR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$981.58 - $5,022.27$2,008.99
Multi-Stage$534.84 - $585.37$559.64
Blended Fair Value$1,284.31
Current Price$280.00
Upside358.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.44%3.95%3.323.223.133.032.912.802.682.572.462.36
YoY Growth--2.97%3.00%3.28%3.92%4.03%4.51%4.35%4.47%4.12%4.88%
Dividend Yield--1.52%1.43%1.52%0.70%1.05%1.45%1.62%1.96%1.96%2.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)847.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)111.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)735.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)169.44105.9063.54
Cash Retained (M)735.97735.97735.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-169.44-105.90-63.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)566.53630.07672.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)33.5533.5533.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.8918.7820.04
LTM Dividend per Share3.323.323.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.8918.7820.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend20.2022.1023.36
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$981.58$2,008.99$5,022.27
Upside / Downside250.56%617.50%1,693.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)847.21902.28960.931,023.391,089.911,160.751,195.58
Payout Ratio13.13%28.50%43.88%59.25%74.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)111.24257.19421.64606.38813.361,044.681,105.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.67%7.67%7.67%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)236.62238.86241.10
Year 2 PV (M)356.90363.70370.56
Year 3 PV (M)472.23485.78499.60
Year 4 PV (M)582.76605.17628.22
Year 5 PV (M)688.65721.91756.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,605.8116,359.5717,142.19
Equity Value (M)17,942.9618,774.9919,638.11
Shares Outstanding (M)33.5533.5533.55
Fair Value$534.84$559.64$585.37
Upside / Downside91.01%99.87%109.06%

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