Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sanofi (SNW.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$121.85 - $239.64$168.29
Multi-Stage$194.61 - $213.64$203.95
Blended Fair Value$186.12
Current Price$82.21
Upside126.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.17%2.50%3.803.603.373.243.183.103.053.003.042.98
YoY Growth--5.61%6.86%3.99%1.80%2.69%1.62%1.70%-1.30%1.76%0.49%
Dividend Yield--3.73%4.06%3.36%3.50%3.77%3.86%3.87%4.59%3.59%4.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,297.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,772.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,525.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,859.401,162.13697.28
Cash Retained (M)4,525.004,525.004,525.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,859.40-1,162.13-697.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,665.603,362.883,827.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,238.031,238.031,238.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.152.723.09
LTM Dividend per Share3.853.853.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.152.723.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.016.576.95
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Fair Value$121.85$168.29$239.64
Upside / Downside48.22%104.71%191.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,297.009,511.119,730.159,954.2410,183.4910,418.0210,730.56
Payout Ratio51.33%59.06%66.80%74.53%82.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,772.005,617.526,499.457,419.038,377.529,376.219,925.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate1.30%2.30%3.30%
Year 1 PV (M)5,233.065,284.725,336.38
Year 2 PV (M)5,640.265,752.165,865.17
Year 3 PV (M)5,997.646,177.026,359.93
Year 4 PV (M)6,308.996,561.816,822.16
Year 5 PV (M)6,577.846,908.977,253.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)211,174.61221,805.35232,859.97
Equity Value (M)240,932.40252,490.03264,496.91
Shares Outstanding (M)1,238.031,238.031,238.03
Fair Value$194.61$203.95$213.64
Upside / Downside136.72%148.08%159.88%

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