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SCGJWD Logistics Public Company Limited (SJWD.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.01 - $119.80$112.27
Multi-Stage$17.87 - $19.54$18.69
Blended Fair Value$65.48
Current Price$9.50
Upside589.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.15%3.43%0.250.440.140.120.140.120.140.050.010.15
YoY Growth---43.09%212.00%13.64%-12.00%19.05%-16.00%212.50%249.71%-91.16%-18.33%
Dividend Yield--3.62%2.80%0.70%0.68%1.64%2.27%1.69%0.48%0.13%1.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,091.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)684.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)406.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)218.24136.4081.84
Cash Retained (M)406.50406.50406.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-218.24-136.40-81.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)188.26270.10324.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,811.461,811.461,811.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.18
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.150.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$50.01$112.27$119.80
Upside / Downside426.41%1,081.79%1,161.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,091.201,162.131,237.661,318.111,403.791,495.041,539.89
Payout Ratio62.75%68.20%73.65%79.10%84.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)684.70792.54911.521,042.611,186.901,345.531,424.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)737.07744.06751.04
Year 2 PV (M)788.38803.40818.56
Year 3 PV (M)838.65862.72887.25
Year 4 PV (M)887.88922.03957.15
Year 5 PV (M)936.10981.311,028.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,179.1429,540.2030,953.35
Equity Value (M)32,367.2133,853.7135,395.60
Shares Outstanding (M)1,811.461,811.461,811.46
Fair Value$17.87$18.69$19.54
Upside / Downside88.08%96.72%105.68%

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